Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
